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TL;DR
Outcome-First Decisions is a framework that guides organizations to evaluate projects by their current outcomes, recommending to keep, change, or kill. It emphasizes pruning over starting new initiatives to improve efficiency.
A new decision-making framework called Outcome-First Decisions is gaining recognition for its approach to managing organizational portfolios by focusing solely on current outcomes to determine whether initiatives should be kept, changed, or killed.
The framework, developed by Thorsten Meyer, emphasizes evaluating ongoing projects based on their present results rather than past investments or emotional attachments. It introduces the Worth Filter, a mechanism that prompts decision-makers to judge whether continuing an initiative is justified by its current outcome, independent of sunk costs.
Outcome-First Decisions categorizes verdicts into three options: keep, change, or kill. The framework aims to promote pruning of underperforming or dead projects, freeing capacity and resources for more promising efforts. It is designed to be provider-agnostic, runs on local compute, and is open source under the AGPL-3.0 license.
While the framework offers a structured approach to decision-making, experts warn about potential pitfalls, including mismeasurement of outcomes, premature killing, and emotional resistance to ending initiatives. The framework does not provide judgment on slow-start projects or emotional courage, leaving those decisions to human discretion.
Outcome-First Decisions — keep, change, or kill
The hardest decision isn’t what to start — it’s what to stop. Judge every initiative by the outcome it produces now, not the effort already spent.
Independent commentary, produced with AI assistance under human editorial oversight. The views are the author’s own and may change. Outcome-First Decisions is open source under AGPL-3.0, provided “as is” without warranty; see the repository LICENSE. The framework’s verdicts are reasoning aids based on the inputs given and may be wrong — decision support, not decisions; verify independently before acting. Product and company names are trademarks of their respective owners; mention does not imply endorsement.
Why Outcome-First Decisions Reshape Portfolio Management
This framework addresses a common organizational challenge: the tendency to continue supporting initiatives that no longer produce valuable outcomes, often due to sunk costs and emotional biases. By focusing solely on current results, it encourages more disciplined pruning, which can lead to increased efficiency, better resource allocation, and a more agile organizational portfolio. Its open-source nature and local-first design make it accessible and adaptable, potentially transforming how organizations manage ongoing projects and commitments.
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The Need for Better Portfolio Pruning Methods
Many organizations struggle with the long tail of ongoing projects that neither succeed nor are formally stopped. These ‘zombie’ initiatives consume attention, capital, and opportunity costs without delivering value. Traditional decision processes often rely on backward-looking metrics or emotional biases, making it difficult to end unproductive efforts. The Outcome-First framework offers a structured, outcome-based approach to address this persistent problem, emphasizing the importance of pruning to reclaim capacity and improve overall portfolio health.“The hardest decision in any portfolio isn’t what to start. It’s what to stop.”
— Thorsten Meyer
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Uncertainties Around Outcome Measurement and Application
It is not yet clear how effectively organizations will implement outcome measurement, especially when outcomes are subjective or difficult to quantify. There is also uncertainty about how the framework will perform in complex projects with long-term or slow results, where early indicators may be misleading. Additionally, the potential for mismeasurement or gaming of outcomes remains a concern, as does the emotional resistance to ending initiatives even when data suggests termination.
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Next Steps for Adoption and Validation
Organizations interested in Outcome-First Decisions are expected to pilot the framework in select portfolios to evaluate its effectiveness. Further research and case studies will likely emerge, providing insights into best practices and limitations. The open-source nature allows for community-driven improvements, and wider adoption may influence portfolio management practices across industries. Monitoring how organizations handle the emotional and measurement challenges will be key to assessing the framework’s long-term viability.
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Key Questions
How does Outcome-First Decisions differ from traditional portfolio management?
It focuses solely on the current outcomes of initiatives to decide whether to keep, change, or kill, rather than relying on past investments or emotional attachments.
What is the Worth Filter?
The Worth Filter is a mechanism that prompts decision-makers to evaluate whether continuing an initiative is justified based on its current results, ignoring sunk costs.
Can the framework be applied to all types of projects?
While designed to be provider-agnostic and flexible, its effectiveness may vary depending on how well outcomes can be measured and the nature of the projects.
What are the main risks of using Outcome-First Decisions?
Risks include mismeasurement of outcomes, premature termination of slow-start projects, and emotional resistance to ending initiatives despite data indicating they should be stopped.
Is this framework available for organizations to try now?
Yes, it is open source under the AGPL-3.0 license and can be implemented on local infrastructure without cost.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
