TL;DR
The ECB’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found that median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1%, while expectations for economic growth weakened and expected unemployment increased. Longer-term inflation expectations were unchanged; households also anticipated higher spending and home prices, alongside tighter access to credit.
The European Central Bank reported on 23 October that consumers’ median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% in September, from 3.0% in August, while expectations for economic growth weakened and expected unemployment increased. The monthly survey offers the ECB a household-level view of inflation, spending, jobs and credit conditions, but its results are not a statement of the central bank’s policy decisions.
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Median inflation perceived over the previous 12 months increased to 3.6%, from 3.5% in August. By contrast, expectations for inflation three and five years ahead were unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. The ECB said uncertainty about inflation over the next year rose slightly and remained above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Consumers expected nominal income to grow by 1.1% over the next 12 months, up from 1.0% in August. Expected nominal spending growth also edged higher, to 3.7% from 3.6%; perceived spending growth over the previous year rose to 5.3% from 5.2%. These are survey expectations and perceptions, not measured forecasts of future household income or expenditure.
Expected economic growth over the next year fell to -1.5%, from -1.2%, and the expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead rose to 11.3%, from 11.0%. Consumers expected home prices to rise by 3.5% over the next year, compared with 3.4% in August. Expected mortgage rates in 12 months remained at 4.9%, while the net share of respondents reporting or anticipating tighter credit access increased.
Households See More Price Pressure
The results show a mixed household outlook: near-term inflation and spending expectations edged up, while respondents became more pessimistic about growth and expected somewhat higher unemployment. These views matter because household expectations can help policymakers interpret consumer decisions and the economic conditions people anticipate. The survey is one input into analysis, rather than a direct measure of what will happen or a signal by itself of the ECB’s next policy move.
The difference between near- and longer-term inflation expectations is also relevant. The increase was limited to the one-year measure; three- and five-year expectations did not change. That distinction prevents the monthly rise from being read as evidence that all measures of expected inflation moved higher.
Income-group differences show that the outlook is not uniform. Consumers in the lowest income quintile reported higher inflation perceptions and expectations on average than those in the highest quintile, and expected higher unemployment and mortgage rates. Those differences provide useful distributional detail, though the survey does not establish why groups answered differently.
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How the ECB Survey Is Collected
The ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of about 19,000 adults in 11 euro area countries. The September wave’s fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026. The results complement other data used by the ECB in policy analysis, but the central bank states that survey findings do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff.
The release reports median figures for the headline inflation measures and describes other statistics according to its stated methodology. The ECB notes that, unless otherwise indicated, statistics in the release refer to the 2% winsorised mean, a calculation method that limits the influence of extreme observations. The underlying microdata and methodological information are available through the ECB’s survey resources.
““Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also increased, to 3.1% from 3.0%.””
— European Central Bank
Limits of the September Responses
The survey records what respondents perceived and expected during fieldwork; it does not establish what inflation, unemployment, growth, home prices or borrowing costs will actually be. It also does not explain the causes of month-to-month changes. The ECB said inflation-expectation uncertainty had risen slightly, but the release does not give a numerical measure of that change in the supplied results.
The results combine responses from 11 euro area countries, and the release does not provide enough detail here to determine how much each country contributed to the aggregate movements. The reported income-group gaps are descriptive, not proof that income caused differences in expectations. Whether these shifts persist will become clearer in later monthly survey waves.
October Survey Due in November
The ECB has scheduled publication of the October 2026 survey results for 27 November 2026. That release will show whether the September movements in near-term inflation expectations, growth outlook, expected unemployment and credit conditions continued or reversed. The ECB also makes country-level and euro area aggregate results available through its Data Portal and website.
Until then, the September findings remain one monthly snapshot from fieldwork conducted between late August and late September. Readers should distinguish those reported expectations from subsequent economic data and from any policy decisions announced separately by the ECB.
Key Questions
What did the ECB’s September 2026 survey report about inflation?
Median inflation perceived over the previous year rose to 3.6% from 3.5% in August. Expected inflation over the next year increased to 3.1% from 3.0%, while expectations three and five years ahead stayed at 2.9% and 2.5%.
Did consumers’ economic outlook improve?
No. Expected growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%, while the expected unemployment rate for 12 months ahead rose to 11.3% from 11.0%.
What did the survey say about home prices and mortgage rates?
Respondents expected home prices to rise by 3.5% over the next year, up from 3.4% in August. Expected mortgage rates in 12 months remained at 4.9%.
When will the next survey results be released?
The ECB scheduled publication of its October 2026 results for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
